I'm interested in the supply theory and I definitely agree that zoning can be too restrictive. But based on my own limited and anecdotal experience, supply doesn't always mean affordable. I grew up in Loudoun County in Northern Virginia where the population has almost quadrupled in 25 years. They've allowed all the types of housing you describe but the result was more people coming, and prices are as high as ever for every housing type.
Hi George! Thanks as always for reading and engaging. I appreciate your curiosity about how all this works.
TL;DR on supply and prices: Adding a few chickens to an egg farm won’t drop egg prices if demand is still way above supply— say, after something like bird flu wiped out flocks. It’s the same with housing. Prices stay high if the underlying shortage remains, or if new supply is blocked, delayed, or skewed toward luxury zoning.
I looked up Loudoun County's stats; I did not spend a ton of time on it but it seems like the county is a perfect case study. The population has nearly quadrupled in 25 years, and while the county has permitted a lot of housing, it hasn’t been enough—or diverse enough—to meet demand. It seems that:
-Median home prices are now over $800,000 (Redfin, April 2025).
-The county had just 0.7 months of inventory at the end of 2024—well below the 5–6 months considered a balanced market.
-Rents are also up 28% in five years.
That doesn’t mean “build more” didn;t work. It means the county’s growth has been constrained by zoning, financing, and infrastructure decisions.
Since you're coming at this as a journalist, if you’re interested in digging deeper (and I think you should!), check out Loudoun’s new “attainable housing” rules adopted in late 2023. Start with the summary below, then ask your town planner:
1. What’s the goal of the rewrite?
2. Do they have benchmarks for success? Are they being met?
3. If not, why not—and what’s being done about it?
I'm not sure how they could allow more except to completely overwhelm the rest of the county which is the last bit of green space left. And what hasn't become housing is data centers. My theory is more supply makes it more enticing and becomes a circular problem.
The set aside for allowing more density in Loudoun seems inadequate. As the need for affordable housing in any income bracket is larger than 10-15%...if I'm reading that right.
I'm interested in the supply theory and I definitely agree that zoning can be too restrictive. But based on my own limited and anecdotal experience, supply doesn't always mean affordable. I grew up in Loudoun County in Northern Virginia where the population has almost quadrupled in 25 years. They've allowed all the types of housing you describe but the result was more people coming, and prices are as high as ever for every housing type.
Hi George! Thanks as always for reading and engaging. I appreciate your curiosity about how all this works.
TL;DR on supply and prices: Adding a few chickens to an egg farm won’t drop egg prices if demand is still way above supply— say, after something like bird flu wiped out flocks. It’s the same with housing. Prices stay high if the underlying shortage remains, or if new supply is blocked, delayed, or skewed toward luxury zoning.
I looked up Loudoun County's stats; I did not spend a ton of time on it but it seems like the county is a perfect case study. The population has nearly quadrupled in 25 years, and while the county has permitted a lot of housing, it hasn’t been enough—or diverse enough—to meet demand. It seems that:
-Median home prices are now over $800,000 (Redfin, April 2025).
-The county had just 0.7 months of inventory at the end of 2024—well below the 5–6 months considered a balanced market.
-Rents are also up 28% in five years.
That doesn’t mean “build more” didn;t work. It means the county’s growth has been constrained by zoning, financing, and infrastructure decisions.
Since you're coming at this as a journalist, if you’re interested in digging deeper (and I think you should!), check out Loudoun’s new “attainable housing” rules adopted in late 2023. Start with the summary below, then ask your town planner:
1. What’s the goal of the rewrite?
2. Do they have benchmarks for success? Are they being met?
3. If not, why not—and what’s being done about it?
The things you've observed about your hometown could be a great opportunity to investigate how well theory is translating into practice, and what’s standing in the way. https://www.loudoun.gov/5961/Zoning-Ordinance-Rewrite-Change-Highligh
I'm not sure how they could allow more except to completely overwhelm the rest of the county which is the last bit of green space left. And what hasn't become housing is data centers. My theory is more supply makes it more enticing and becomes a circular problem.
The set aside for allowing more density in Loudoun seems inadequate. As the need for affordable housing in any income bracket is larger than 10-15%...if I'm reading that right.